HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray - no end in sight
I recently posted something similar to this in a 1up DVD club, but now I want to make my opinion known to the singles of people who read this.
In the battle of HD-DVD versus Blu-Ray, I don't believe a clear winner will be decided quite as completely as the VHS versus Beta format wars. First of all, it took years before the market declared a standard winner, and even well after the dust had settled, my dad still had his BetaMax VCR and tape collection still in active use. The odd thing was, if you compare Beta to VHS side-by-side, Beta was far superior in video quality. Now we have a new video format war brewing, and there are fanboys on both sides of the aisle.
Blu-Ray right now seems to be the leading contender, but lets look at a few facts.
Let's look at these arguments one by one.
Sony has rarely, if ever, won a format war
I'm not going to state an absolute when i could be wrong, but let's look at a few examples. BetaMax, MiniDisc, ATRAC.
Enough said.
The cost of hardware will be prohibitive for all but early adopters.
Recently, Toshiba announced a couple of HD-DVD players in the $800 to $1000 range. With limited launch titles available, and current DVD players available for less than $100, who's going to buy one at launch? Probably the same type of person who paid $1200 for an Xbox360 on eBay when it launched. I haven't seen price point announcements on blu-ray, but it will have to be more competitive to stay in the game.
Consumers don't like making decisions. They want to be told what to buy.
Don't get me wrong, they're not stupid. Well, a few of them aren't anyway, but the bottom line is most of them will wait out the wars until there is a clear winner. By then the media and the players will be standardized. How does that happen? Well, whichever format can deliver a player priced for the Wal-Mart crowd, and discs that are just as cheap as DVDs. I honestly believe that's what it will take. I have over 700 titles in my DVD collection, and I won't make a move until I know which player I'll have to buy.
There's nothing wrong with the current DVD format
That's right. I said it. There's nothing wrong with DVDs. Sure, they could have better visual and audio quality that would require more storage, but only select titles will be worth converting or remastering to a new high-definition format? For example, is it really worth buying White Palace in a high-def format?
I could see anime titles or high-budget action/adventure films benefitting, but what about old movies from the 40s or the 50s?
The fact of the matter is that this exact same battle is still being fought in the multichannel audio arena, with no clear winner, or no end in sight.
Remember how the DVD-Audio vs. SACD battle turned out? Of course not. Because there hasn't been a clear winner in that battle. And what makes matters worse, is other than audiophiles, no one cares. CDs haven't outlived their usefulness. Most people will go to their local superstore and buy a CD without knowing that they could be getting a multichannel or higher quality stereo mix. To confuse the issue even further, there's a third party, the DTS cd. I currently have 5 or 6 DVD-Audio discs, and 2 or three DTS cds. I don't have any SACDs yet, but I was thinking of picking up Aerosmith's Toys in the Attic.
But I digest.
So what's the solution?
First of all, don't believe the hype. Neither format is a must-have. Most consumers don't have high-definition TVs, and wouldn't benefit from the new formats. Secondly, while a new high-capacity storage format might mean improved video and audio quality, the company or companies responsible for the development of the winning format will be the big winner, as they will be able to profit from the licensing fees from 3rd party manufacturers. And most importantly, no one is really complaining about the current format. The new formats are going to have to offer a paradigm shift in how we watch movies, and there's nothing to indicate that they will do that. Many thought that 8-tracks and cassette tapes would kill the vinyl record, but it wasn't until the CD that the format took a significant hit. Also, vinyl isn't quite as dead as one might think, just take a look at a lot of the independent record labels and high-end audio shops.
But the PS3 will come with a blu-ray player, and Microsoft has announced that it will support an external HD-DVD input.
And that's probably where the formats will thrive. But the home video market? Not for a while.
So should you care about which format wins?
No.
In the battle of HD-DVD versus Blu-Ray, I don't believe a clear winner will be decided quite as completely as the VHS versus Beta format wars. First of all, it took years before the market declared a standard winner, and even well after the dust had settled, my dad still had his BetaMax VCR and tape collection still in active use. The odd thing was, if you compare Beta to VHS side-by-side, Beta was far superior in video quality. Now we have a new video format war brewing, and there are fanboys on both sides of the aisle.
Blu-Ray right now seems to be the leading contender, but lets look at a few facts.
- Sony has rarely, if ever, won a format war.
- The cost of hardware will be prohibitive for all but early adopters.
- Consumers don't like making decisions. They want to be told what to buy.
- There's nothing wrong with the current DVD format
Let's look at these arguments one by one.
Sony has rarely, if ever, won a format war
I'm not going to state an absolute when i could be wrong, but let's look at a few examples. BetaMax, MiniDisc, ATRAC.
Enough said.
The cost of hardware will be prohibitive for all but early adopters.
Recently, Toshiba announced a couple of HD-DVD players in the $800 to $1000 range. With limited launch titles available, and current DVD players available for less than $100, who's going to buy one at launch? Probably the same type of person who paid $1200 for an Xbox360 on eBay when it launched. I haven't seen price point announcements on blu-ray, but it will have to be more competitive to stay in the game.
Consumers don't like making decisions. They want to be told what to buy.
Don't get me wrong, they're not stupid. Well, a few of them aren't anyway, but the bottom line is most of them will wait out the wars until there is a clear winner. By then the media and the players will be standardized. How does that happen? Well, whichever format can deliver a player priced for the Wal-Mart crowd, and discs that are just as cheap as DVDs. I honestly believe that's what it will take. I have over 700 titles in my DVD collection, and I won't make a move until I know which player I'll have to buy.
There's nothing wrong with the current DVD format
That's right. I said it. There's nothing wrong with DVDs. Sure, they could have better visual and audio quality that would require more storage, but only select titles will be worth converting or remastering to a new high-definition format? For example, is it really worth buying White Palace in a high-def format?
I could see anime titles or high-budget action/adventure films benefitting, but what about old movies from the 40s or the 50s?
The fact of the matter is that this exact same battle is still being fought in the multichannel audio arena, with no clear winner, or no end in sight.
Remember how the DVD-Audio vs. SACD battle turned out? Of course not. Because there hasn't been a clear winner in that battle. And what makes matters worse, is other than audiophiles, no one cares. CDs haven't outlived their usefulness. Most people will go to their local superstore and buy a CD without knowing that they could be getting a multichannel or higher quality stereo mix. To confuse the issue even further, there's a third party, the DTS cd. I currently have 5 or 6 DVD-Audio discs, and 2 or three DTS cds. I don't have any SACDs yet, but I was thinking of picking up Aerosmith's Toys in the Attic.
But I digest.
So what's the solution?
First of all, don't believe the hype. Neither format is a must-have. Most consumers don't have high-definition TVs, and wouldn't benefit from the new formats. Secondly, while a new high-capacity storage format might mean improved video and audio quality, the company or companies responsible for the development of the winning format will be the big winner, as they will be able to profit from the licensing fees from 3rd party manufacturers. And most importantly, no one is really complaining about the current format. The new formats are going to have to offer a paradigm shift in how we watch movies, and there's nothing to indicate that they will do that. Many thought that 8-tracks and cassette tapes would kill the vinyl record, but it wasn't until the CD that the format took a significant hit. Also, vinyl isn't quite as dead as one might think, just take a look at a lot of the independent record labels and high-end audio shops.
But the PS3 will come with a blu-ray player, and Microsoft has announced that it will support an external HD-DVD input.
And that's probably where the formats will thrive. But the home video market? Not for a while.
So should you care about which format wins?
No.
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